Shielded vs unshielded cable, how to choose the answer here!

Shielded cable vs unshielded cable

Shielded cable? Or unshielded cable—— This is a problem. The choice of shielded or unshielded cables mainly depends on the specific application requirements. Today, Xiaobian sorted out the factors that should be considered when using shielded cables on AAC Cable treasure.
Shielded cable
Shielded cable is a transmission line that uses metal mesh braid to wrap the signal line. The braid is generally red copper or tinned copper; Shielded cables are mainly used to prevent interference signals from entering the inner conductor and are suitable for transformers and similar equipment.
The shielded cable complies with the national standard: gb12972.6-91. The long-term allowable working temperature of the conductor is 90 ℃. It is suitable for the connecting wires of control and monitoring circuits and protection lines with rated voltage of 450 / 750V and below. It is mainly used in places where electromagnetic wave interference is prevented and shielding is required.
In order to minimize the impact of electromagnetic and radio frequency interference, each component in the shielding system must be seamless and correctly installed and maintained. In addition, shielded cables and systems also need good grounding. Incorrect grounding can cause radiation and interference problems in the system.

Single layer shielding

double-layer screen
Shielded stray wire
Single layer shielding
double-layer screen
Shielded cable assembly
Unshielded cable
When wiring near EMI / RFI interference sources is not involved, unshielded ACSR Cables shall be selected in most cases. Unshielded cable has the advantages of light weight, high flexibility, wide use, reliability and low price. It is widely used in IT applications and office networks.

Unshielded dispersion
Unshielded cable assembly
However, it should be noted that when enterprise networks or SMB networks want to achieve high data rates such as 10Gbps or 40Gbps on copper wires, the use of shielded cables can significantly reduce or even eliminate external crosstalk (AXT) harmful to network performance. This problem is mainly aimed at high-speed networks using category 6 cables, and does not involve low-speed 10 / 100 / 1000 networks using category 5 and category 6 cables.
It can be seen that the type of cable selected depends on the physical location of the network and the technology adopted (such as 10Base-T). The best practice is to thoroughly evaluate the installation location and network technical requirements, and then select the appropriate cable according to the specific specification requirements.

Causes of blackening of copper wire of heavy rubber sheathed flexible cable

2.1 catalytic aging of copper is an important reason for rubber hair adhesion
The experiment of the former Soviet Union Institute of AAAC Cable science proved that copper infiltrated into the insulating rubber from the contact with rubber during vulcanization, and the thickness of 1.0-2.0mm contained 0.009-0.0027% copper. As we all know, trace copper has a great damage to rubber, that is, heavy metal is the catalytic aging of rubber. During the process of insulation vulcanization, qiulanm precipitates some free sulfur to react with copper to form active copper containing groups: CH3 ■ ch2-ch-c-ch2- ■ ■ SS ■ ■ cucu, when aging, weak s-s-bond breaks, forming active copper containing base: cu-s-, which acts with rubber, and acts with oxygen, breaks down long bond molecules of rubber, making rubber soft and sticky, which is a combination of low molecular chain. The French Academy of rubber also pointed out that if there are harmful metals in rubber, such as copper, manganese and other heavy metal salts, the rubber viscosity will occur regardless of the type of promoter.

2.2 sulfur migration to the surface of insulating rubber and copper wire in rubber sheath cable
The possibility of sulfur diffusion in cable sheath rubber was confirmed by the use of radioisotope by former Soviet scientists. The diffusion coefficient of free sulfur is about 10-6cm2 / s at 130-150 ℃ in the vulcanized rubber based on natural rubber. In the continuous vulcanization factory, when vulcanizing sheath rubber, the temperature is between 185-200 ℃, and the diffusion coefficient is greater. Because of the diffusion of free sulfur in rubber sheath, the structure of the colum rubber is changed, and the polysulfide bond may be formed. These polysulfide compounds migrate through chemical decomposition and chemical combination, namely “chemical diffusion”. Due to the migration, not only the structure of the insulating rubber can be changed, the heat resistance of the rubber can be reduced, but the reaction between sulfur and copper surface will result in copper sulfide and cuprous sulfide, which leads to the blackening of copper wire. In turn, copper sulfide and cuprous sulfide accelerate the aging of rubber, and lead to the occurrence of adhesion.

3. Reasons for processing technology
3.1 reasons for processing rubber
In the insulation formula based on the combination of natural rubber and SBR, the plastic of rubber needs to be improved by plastic refining. In order to produce, some factories use internal mixer to improve plasticity by adding a small amount of chemical plasticizer, accelerator M. If the temperature of plastic refining and rubber filtration are not well controlled, high temperature above 140 ℃ appears. When the raw rubber is put on the opening mill, it passes through the drum slowly. Because the rubber is affected by hot oxygen and accelerator M, it will be found that the rubber surface seems to be coated with oil. In fact, rubber molecules are more serious in promoting the chain breaking under the promotion of chemical plasticizer, A relatively soft and sticky rubber with smaller molecular weight was produced.
Although the rubber was mixed with SBR and then mixed with insulating rubber, these small molecular weight natural rubber were evenly dispersed in the rubber. After the rubber was extruded on the copper wire for continuous vulcanization, there might be no problem at that time, but a hidden danger was buried for the rubber copper ABC Cables. That is, the local copper wire sticking phenomenon will appear in the first place for these small molecular weight natural rubber.

The process of adding vulcanizing agent and accelerator to insulating rubber is also very important. Some small factories add vulcanizing agent on the mixer, that is, pour the pot containing vulcanizate into the middle of the drum, with many in the middle, and less on both sides. When the vulcanizate into rubber, the number of turning triangle was less, which would make the vulcanizate distributed unevenly in the rubber. In this way, copper wire blackening is easy to appear in many places with vulcanizing agent when extrusion is continuous vulcanization. In the blackening place for a long time, the phenomenon of rubber adhesive copper wire will appear.
3.2 reasons for vulcanization of insulating rubber
In order to pursue the production, some enterprises only have 60 meters long continuous vulcanization tubes, 1.3mpa steam pressure, and the vulcanization speed is 120 m / min. thus, the residence time of insulating rubber in the pipe is only 30 seconds. Rubber itself is a bad conductor of heat. The surface temperature of the insulating core is more than 190 ℃, and when the temperature is transferred to the inner rubber contacting with copper wire, it is also absorbed by copper wire. When the copper wire is heated to close to the inner rubber temperature, the vulcanized rubber wire core has been discharged from the vulcanizing tube. So the temperature of the inner rubber is relatively low, about 170 ℃, and the vulcanization tube will be left only a few seconds. When it enters the cooling and winding, the insulation rubber will not be vulcanized enough.
In order to achieve sufficient vulcanization, the amount of promoter TMTD (as vulcanizing agent) is up to 3.4%. The excess of vulcanizing agent also releases more free sulfur during the curing process. Besides the crosslinking rubber molecules, there are also excess free sulfur. This is the reason why the copper wire surface is blackened.
In short, it is still difficult to solve the problem of copper wire blackening. Every process from copper wire to rubber should be taken seriously to achieve better results. The key to the problem is the choice of rubber species and the adoption of vulcanization system. The solution to this problem needs to go through the test of time.

Maintenance contents of cable channel

1. Replace the damaged well cover, cover plate and protection plate, and complete the missing well cover, cover plate and protection plate.
2. Maintain the working shaft stop.
3. Clean up the water and debris in the passage.
4 stairs (ladder) for tunnel maintenance personnel entering and leaving the shaft

5. Maintain the ventilation, lighting, drainage and low voltage power supply system in the tunnel.
6. Maintain fire prevention and isolation facilities and fire fighting facilities in cable trench and tunnel.
7 prune and cut branches and vines with insufficient safety distance around AAAC Cable terminal tower (pole) and T-joint platform.
8 repair the grounding down lead with loose connection, poor grounding, corrosion and other defects.
9 replace the missing, faded and damaged stakes, warning signs and signs, and timely correct the inclined stakes, warning signs and signs.
10. Carry out anti-corrosion treatment for corroded cable support, and replace or repair the missing, damaged and severely corroded support parts.
11. Bailey frame, I-beam and other facilities can be used to protect the cable trench in operation, and the suspension and support protection shall be well done. When the suspension protection is carried out, the cable trench body or row pipe shall be protected as a whole, and direct suspension of bare cables is prohibited.

12. If the cable passage in the green belt or sidewalk is changed to slow lane or fast lane, it should be relocated. Before the relocation, the relevant parties should be required to take reinforcement measures according to the load-bearing road standard to protect the working shaft, drainage pipe and cable trench.
10.2.13 when there are excavators, cranes and other large machinery passing through the non load bearing AAC Cable channel, the relevant parties shall be required to take protective measures such as setting steel plates above, and the protective measures shall prevent noise from disturbing the residents.
10.2.14 if the elevation of the working shaft or trench body is inconsistent with the surrounding due to the change of the environment of the cable passage, the elevation of the working shaft or trench body shall be adjusted by prefabricated shaft or cast-in-place method.

Types of cable faults

(1) Mechanical damage accounts for a large proportion of AAC Cable accidents. There are three main causes of mechanical damage.
(1) it is directly damaged by external force. If the cable is damaged by accident in the process of urban construction, transportation, or excavation, piling, lifting and handling of underground pipeline engineering.
(2) damage during cable installation: for example, the cable is damaged due to excessive traction, or the insulation or shielding layer is damaged due to too small cable bending.
(3) damage caused by other factors, such as expansion of insulating glue in joint or terminal and cracking of shell or nearby cable sheath; Without proper cable expansion arc, the cable sheath installed on the pipe orifice or bracket is damaged due to thermal mechanical force; Excessive tension caused by land subsidence, breaking the joint or conductor; The breakage of terminal porcelain bushing; Due to the vibration of large mechanical parts or running vehicles nearby, the lead bag is damaged.
(2) damp insulation
(1) because of the joint box or terminal box structure is not sealed or poor installation, resulting in water.
(2) poor cable manufacturing: there are small holes or cracks in the metal sheath of the ACSR Cable.
(3) the metal sheath is pierced or corroded by foreign objects.
in the fault repair work, the damp insulation must be removed. At the same time, check whether there is moisture in the conductor and remove it.

Insulation aging
cable insulation has been operating under the action of electricity and heat for a long time, and its physical properties change, which leads to the decrease of insulation strength or the increase of dielectric loss, and finally causes insulation breakdown, which is called insulation aging. If the operation time exceeds the designed service life of the cable, the aging of the insulation is called normal aging, which belongs to improper operation. If the similar situation occurs in a short period of time, it is regarded as premature aging of the insulation.
Overvoltage (IV)
it is rare to damage cable equipment due to lightning stroke or other impulse overvoltage. Generally, 3 ~ 4 times of instantaneous overvoltage will not affect the cable with good insulation. However, there are still some cases that the cable line is broken down when it is struck by lightning, such as the insulation of the vertical part of the terminal is dry, which may be broken down when it is struck by lightning.
there are many factors for cable overheating. Cable overload operation (over cable ampacity or under abnormal operation mode) will cause cable overheating; In areas with dense cables, poor ventilation of cable trench and tunnel, cables passing through dry ducts, etc., insulation damage may be accelerated due to overheating of cables. The vertical part of oil paper cable will lose insulating oil quickly due to overheating, resulting in dry insulation and even coking of insulating paper. Overload can also accelerate the recrystallization of lead clad grains, resulting in lead clad fatigue damage. In the oil paper cable line, when the shell of the joint filled with a large amount of asphalt insulating glue is welded with copper sheet, due to the large thermal expansion coefficient of the asphalt insulating glue itself, it is difficult to avoid the overload. The expansion of asphalt insulating glue will cause the copper shell to crack, or lead sheath of a section of cable at the lead sealing joint to crack.
Due to the fire or the influence of other adjacent cable faults and other external overheating damage, most of them can be determined from the burning phenomenon of the protective layer outside the cable, which is easier to identify.
(VI) material defects
this is a congenital defect of the cable. There are mainly mechanical damage of lead sheath, impurities in lead sheath, and joints in pressing lead. These are not easy to see outside the armor, and are often found in the process of accident repair. The end of the plastic cable is not sealed. After a large amount of moisture enters into the conductor, the insulation will gradually form “water branch” under the action of voltage, leading to insulation breakdown.

it belongs to congenital defects of cable accessories, such as sand holes in cast iron, insufficient mechanical strength of porcelain parts, rough and loose processing of assembly parts, non-conforming specification of waterproof rubber ring, rubber aging, etc. If the installation unit has a sound acceptance system, it can basically find these disadvantages and plug the loopholes.
(7) poor design
such as the joint and terminal waterproof design is not careful, the selection of materials is improper, the process requirements are not strict, the mechanical strength is poor and so on. For new equipment, new materials and new technology, trial operation should be arranged first, and then gradually popularized according to the maturity of operation experience, so that it is easy to correct even if problems occur.

How to prevent and control pests on cable lines?

For direct buried ACSR Cable laying, in addition to preventing external mechanical damage, there is another kind of external damage from insects, such as termites. South China is located in the subtropical zone with humid climate, which is suitable for termite breeding. Termites will damage the lead sheath of the cable, causing the insulation damp after the lead sheath is perforated. In the areas where termite activities are more frequent, the special sheathed cable with termite resistance should be selected for the cable line design. If termite breeding is found near the cable line that has been put into operation, it should immediately report to the local termite control department for termite control, and adopt centralized trapping and prevention measures.

[1] Shi Chuanqing, chief editor. Question and answer of power cable installation and operation technology

Methods to prevent cable corrosion

(1) The cable manufacturer is required to use the protective layer outside the metal sheath of the AAC Cable when manufacturing the cable, and the aluminum sheathed cable must have polyethylene or PVC outer sheath.
2) When selecting the cable route, it is necessary to make full investigation, collect the soil data near the area where the line passes, and carry out chemical analysis, so as to judge the degree of soil and groundwater erosion. If necessary, measures should be taken, such as changing the route of the line, partially replacing the bad soil, or adding special protective measures, such as putting the cable through the corrosion-resistant pipe.

Prevent external damage and theft of facilities
Design and infrastructure stage
The setting of cable route, auxiliary equipment and facilities (ground grounding box, entrance and exit, ventilation Pavilion, etc.) shall be approved by the planning department. It should be avoided that the cable passage is adjacent to the thermal pipeline, flammable and explosive pipeline (oil and gas) and corrosive medium pipeline.
Note: it is a new clause. It is proposed that the route, auxiliary equipment and facilities should be approved by the planning department, and the requirements of avoiding the cable passage adjacent to thermal pipelines, flammable and explosive pipelines (oil and gas) and pipelines with corrosive media should be avoided.
It is difficult to understand the corrosion degree of the cable on the running cable line. In the area where the corrosion of the cable has been found or the leakage of some chemicals piled on the ACSR Cable line, the soil should be dug to check the cable, and the nearby soil should be chemically analyzed to determine the damage degree
2. Methods to prevent electrolytic corrosion
(1) strengthen the insulation between the metal sheath of the cable and the huge metal objects nearby.
(2) installation of drainage or forced drainage, polarity drainage equipment, cathode station, etc.
(3) for areas with serious electrolytic corrosion, shielding pipes should be installed.
stray current is related to the distribution of electrical track, the maintenance of joints and the layout of other underground metal pipelines. In order to protect the underground pipelines and communication cables, the departments of underground oil and gas pipelines and local communication cables sometimes adopt cathodic protection. Therefore, the cable operation Department must systematically measure the potential difference between the lead sheath and the earth and other pipelines, the stray current density of the lead sheath and the current density flowing into the earth, so as to accumulate data. When we know which area is in danger of corrosion, we should take preventive measures in time, and work together with relevant units to try to eliminate the source of stray current and do a good job of corrosion prevention.

the operation experience shows that when the current density from the cable metal sheath reaches the average value of one day and night, the metal sheath will be corroded. This paper introduces a method of measuring stray current density auxiliary electrode method,
the auxiliary electrode is made of a section of cable similar to the tested cable, and its length should be such that the contact surface between the electrode and the earth is not less than 500. Peel off the outer protective layer of the electrode surface, wipe off the armored surface, weld the connecting wire, and pour asphalt or other insulating materials on the solder joint insulation and both ends of the electrode.
In addition to cable corrosion, there are also corrosion phenomena such as metal bracket, metal hoop and grounding wire in cable channel.

Is the thicker the cable insulation, the better?

Many friends may think that the thicker the AAC Cable, the better the insulation performance, the more durable the cable, and the better the quality. In fact, this idea is taken for granted, and there are some misunderstandings.
This is because the insulation performance of cables depends on the technical indicators. The state has strict technical standards for cables. Compared with the cable thickness specified in the national standards, it is unnecessary to say that if the cable thickness is thinner, even if it is thicker, it is also unqualified as long as it exceeds the specified value.

When the thickness exceeds the standard, the performance of the cable will be affected, such as the service life will be greatly shortened. Because when the cable is laid and put into use, it will be in the state of continuous power supply, and the heat will be generated in the process of power supply. If the thickness exceeds the standard, although the insulation looks better, the result is that the heat is difficult to dissipate( Learn more cable technology, please click here, a large number of dry goods waiting for you) with the accumulation of time, more and more heat accumulation, of course, will affect the normal service life of the cable.

When the situation is serious, it will even lead to short circuit, power failure, causing greater damage.
The so-called “too much is not as good as it can be”. Those who meet the national standards are the best.

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On the specifications and standards of wires and cables

Plastic insulated conductor

1. Purpose: This product is suitable for fixed laying of power plant with AC rated voltage of 450 / 750V and below.
2. Product standard: GB 5023-95 AAC Cables (wires) for fixed laying of PVC insulated cables (wires) with rated voltage of 450 / 750V and below
3. Features: 1) rated voltage U0 / u is 450 / 750V and 300 / 500V. 2) Long term allowable working temperature of cable: bv-105 type… Should not exceed 105 ℃; Other models… Should not exceed 70 ℃. 3) The laying temperature of cable shall not be lower than 0 ℃; 4) The allowable bending radius of the cable is: if the outer diameter (d) of the cable is less than 25 mm, it shall not be less than 4 d; The cable outer diameter (d) of 25 mm and above shall not be less than 6D

Sheathed wire

1. Purpose: This product is suitable for the connection of household appliances, small electric tools, instruments and power lighting devices with AC rated voltage of 450 / 750V and below.
2. Product standard: flexible wires for connection of PVC insulated wires and cables with rated voltage of 450 / 750V and below (GB 5023, 3-85)
3. Features: 1) U0 / u is 450 / 750V, 300 / 500V and 300 / 300V. 2) Long term allowable working temperature of cable: rv-105 should not exceed 105 ℃; Other models should not exceed 70 ℃

Shielded flexible wire

1. Purpose: This product is suitable for electrical appliances, instruments, electronic equipment and automation devices with AC rated voltage of 300 / 300V and below.
2. Product standard: GB 5023.5-86 PVC insulated wires, cables and shielded wires with rated voltage up to and including 450 / 750V
3. Features: 1) rated voltage U0 / u is 300 / 300V; 2) Long term allowable working temperature of cable: avp-105, rvp-105… Should not exceed 105 ℃; Other models… Should not exceed 70 ℃

Control cable

1. Purpose: This product is used for the wiring of electrical appliances and instruments in power distribution devices with rated AC voltage of 500V or DC voltage of 1000V and below.
2. Product features: the long-term allowable working temperature of ABC Cable conductor shall not exceed 70 ℃. The temperature of wires and cables during laying shall not be lower than 0 ℃, and the bending radius during laying shall not be less than 10 times of the outer diameter of cables. The cable with armored layer or copper tape shielding structure shall not be less than 12 times of the outer diameter of the cable.
3. Product standard: gb9330.2-88 PVC insulated and sheathed control cables

Plastic insulated cable

1. Purpose: This product is suitable for power transmission and distribution in the line with AC 50 Hz and rated voltage 0.6/1 kV.
2. Product standard: GB 12706 · 2-91 rated voltage 35kV and below copper core, aluminum core plastic insulated power cable, PVC insulated power cable
3. Service characteristics: 1) the maximum rated temperature of cable conductor is 70 ℃. 2) The maximum temperature of cable conductor shall not exceed 160 ℃ in case of short circuit (the longest duration shall not exceed 5S). 3) When laying cables, the ambient temperature shall not be lower than 0 ℃, and the minimum bending radius shall not be less than 10 times of the outer diameter of the cable.

Cross linked power cable

Product standard: This product is manufactured according to the standard of GB 1270 “rated voltage 35kV and below copper core, aluminum core plastic insulated power cable”. At the same time, it can also be manufactured according to IEC, British standard, German standard and American standard recommended by International Electrotechnical Commission.
Scope of application:
This product is suitable for power distribution lines with rated power frequency voltage of 3.6/kv-26 / 35kV for distribution of electric energy.
Usage features:
The rated power frequency voltage uo / u is 3.6/6kv-26 / 35kV.
The maximum allowable long-term working temperature of cable conductor is 90 ℃.
The maximum temperature of cable conductor shall not exceed 250 ℃ in case of short circuit (the longest duration shall not exceed 5S).
The ambient temperature of cable laying shall not be lower than 0 ℃.
Bending radius of cable: not less than 15 times of outer diameter of three core cable; The single core cable shall not be less than 20 times of the outer diameter of the cable.
Selection of cable rated voltage
The rated voltage of the cable shall be suitable for the operation of the cable system, expressed in uo / u (UM) kV.
Uo — rated power frequency voltage between conductor and ground or metal shield for cable design;
U — rated power frequency voltage between conductors for cable design;
Um — the maximum value of “maximum system voltage” that the equipment can withstand.

Computer cable

Purpose: shielded cable for computer, high voltage polyethylene with small dielectric constant as insulation. It has the advantages of small dielectric loss, strong signal transmission ability and good anti-interference performance. It can reliably transmit weak analog signals. It can be widely used in computer systems or automation devices for detection and control in power generation, metallurgy, petroleum, chemical industry, light textile and other departments, And the general industrial computer.

Low smoke halogen free cable

1. Application: the product has excellent flame retardant performance, little smoke when burning, no corrosive gas escaping, and is widely used in nuclear power station, subway station, telephone exchange and computer control center, high-rise buildings, hotels, radio and television stations, important military facilities, oil platforms, etc., as well as places with concentrated personnel and low air density.
2. Usage characteristics:
1. Excellent flame retardancy and flame retardancy.
2. The amount of smoke generated during combustion is very small, and no toxic gas or corrosive gas is produced.
3. It has certain mechanical, physical and electrical properties, and can meet the requirements of the cable.
3. Product executive standard:


1、 Product standard: This product is in accordance with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) pub207 “aluminum strand” and pub209 “aluminum strand steel reinforced”.

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Seemingly the same national standard cable, the difference is not just the price!

Often hear AAC Cable practitioners complain: it is too difficult to sell national standard. You say you are national standard, and those who sell non-standard also say that he is national standard. As a result, the price is more than 10% cheaper than yours, so it is helpless. Here, we will review and summarize the four rounds of the national standard and non-standard confrontation.

The first round of confrontation is calculated by the weight of copper. At first, it worked, but the national standard ignored a problem. Your copper is oxygen free rod, but not standard one. When the weight of waste copper and oxygen free rod is the same, the price of waste copper and oxygen free rod is 10%. So the national standard cable spent great efforts in propaganda, and finally failed, the difference between national standard and non-standard guarantee bottom was 10%.
The second round of confrontation, auxiliary materials on the work and materials. The state has increased resistance inspection, and also increased the inspection of conventional products. Non-standard cables began to work on auxiliary materials. If copper accounts for 70% of the cost of cables, the cost of auxiliary materials takes up about 20%, which is 20% of the cost. If the materials are used a little bit, the price is 5% different from that of national standard. We also see that many of the cables exposed recently have problems with accessories.

The third round of confrontation, the wire is short to the cable short meter. In fact, the short meter has always existed, this is the most difficult to check. It used to be common on BV, such as 95 meters, 98 meters, or 90 meters. Now, because of the increase of inspection items, all the products inspected have been included, so non-standard ones have begun to work in this direction again. I hope you can draw attention, 100 meters reduced by 1 meter, 1% of the profit came out.
The fourth round of confrontation, both sides thick and thin. That is to say, both ends of the cable are national standard, the middle part is non-standard, so it saves a lot of costs, the corresponding cable price will be much lower. You can’t cut the cable from the middle, so the leak is just drilled.
Huaxing Cable Factory has always adhered to the business philosophy of “innovation technology +, continuous improvement +”. Strictly control the product quality, select the high-quality raw material supplier as the cooperation unit, and 99.99% and above oxygen free copper is used for copper core. The products are superior to our standards, have better conductivity, lower consumption, safer and environmental protection. Is many consumers more assured choice!

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Copper price, still rising? When is the beginning?

Foreign media news: in the 2020’s, global copper demand will achieve the strongest growth in history
Copper price will rise to US $15000 / T in 2025

According to the Research Report of Huaxing factory, the 1920s will be the decade with the highest growth of global copper demand in history.
Goldman Sachs said the key role copper will play in achieving the Paris climate goals cannot be underestimated. If there is no significant progress in carbon capture and storage technology in the next few years, the realization of net zero emission will only rely on emission reduction, specifically electrification and renewable energy.
As the most cost-effective conductive material, copper is the core of acquiring, storing and transporting these new energy sources. In fact, the discussion of peaking oil demand ignores the fact that renewable energy as an alternative to oil would not have occurred without heavy use of copper and other key metals.
According to Gao Shengyan, promoting global net zero emissions remains the core driving force for the structural bull market of commodity demand, with green metals (especially copper) playing a crucial role. The physical properties of copper are very important to be able to convert these energy sources into useful end states, such as moving vehicles or heating homes.
Goldman Sachs said that based on the carbon economics analysis of electric vehicle, wind energy, solar energy and battery technology by stock analysts, we quantified this demand with a bottom-up model. It is estimated that by 2030, under the basic scenario, the green transformation will lead to an increase of nearly 600% in copper demand to 5.4 million tons,
With the active adoption of green technology, the transformation will lead to a 900% increase in copper demand to 8.7 million tons. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that by the middle of this century, the growth of green demand alone will reach (and soon surpass) the increase in demand brought about by China in the 2000s. Coupled with the ripple effect on non green industries, it means that the 2020’s is expected to become the strongest growth stage in the history of global copper demand.

However, the copper market is not ready for this demand environment.
In addition, poor returns over the past decade, coupled with concerns about environmental and social governance (ESG), have led to a reduction in investment in future supply growth in the copper industry, which has brought the copper market very close to the peak supply. In fact, the copper market is reproducing the classic case of “Revenge of the old economy”, just like the situation of the crude oil market during the commodity boom of the 2000s.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that the collapse in prices in the mid-2010’s has led to deep trouble for manufacturers that have increased production prematurely, leading the mining industry to remain cautious about production growth. Although copper prices have risen 80% in the past 12 months, no substantial green space projects have been approved.
COVID-19 makes this supply and demand dynamic more complex and brings more uncertainty, which leads enterprises to freeze investment decisions.
Due to the surge of demand, but the lag of supply growth, the current gap between supply and demand expands, and indicates that there will be a large-scale gap between supply and demand from 2025. Analysts at Goldman Sachs now estimate that the long-term supply gap will reach 8.2 million tons by 2030, which is twice the supply and demand gap that triggered the bull market in the early 21st century.
Goldman Sachs expects the price of copper to rise all the way to $15000 a ton. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that from now on, the most likely trend for copper prices is to rise to about $15000 around 2025.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that the average price of copper will be $9675 / T in 2021, $11875 / T in 2022, $12000 / T in 2023, $14000 / T in 2024 and $15000 / T in 2025. In this context, we have upgraded our 12-month copper price target to US $11000 per ton.