The US energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that the days of the us have been reduced by government measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus, reducing economic activity and energy prices.
Gas production and demand will fall from last year’s record highs in 2020 and 2021.
The EIA expects dry gas production to fall from a record high of 92.21 BCFD (BCF/d, the same below) in 2019 to 89.24 BCFD and 84.23 BCFD in 2021.
The EIA also expects gas consumption to decline from a record 84.97 BCFD in 2019 to 82.35 BCFD in 2020 and 78.62 BCFD in 2021.
This would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the second consecutive decline since 2006.
The EIA’s July 2020 gas supply forecast is lower than its June forecast of 89.65 BCFD and its latest 2020 demand outlook is higher than its June forecast of 81.87 BCFD.
It forecast US LNG exports to reach 5.35 BCFD in 2020 and 7.28 BCFD in 2021, up from a record 4.98 BCFD in 2019 and below its June forecast of 2020
In 2021, it was 7.31 BCFD.
Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to fall from 5.130 billion tonnes in 2019, the lowest level since 1992, to 4.507 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest level since 1983, and then to follow
Increase in coal use to 4.775 billion tons by 2021.