Analysis of the main products of cable raw materials (copper): According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the domestic spot copper price continued to fall sharply in July, and the overall copper price fell during the month. The average spot copper price in the beginning of the month was 42585. RMB/ton, the average spot copper price at the end of the month was 39,030 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 3555 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 8.35%.
Macroscopically, abroad, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting announced recently confirmed the recovery of the US economy. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in September may intensify. This topic may still be the focus of the market in August. However, the US GDP in the second quarter fell short of expectations. It was not easy to realize the interest rate hike in September. What is more certain is that the strength of the US dollar will not change, which may trigger a new round of upsurge of funds leaving the commodity market, which will also put pressure on copper prices. On the domestic front, the current Chinese economy is still operating at a low level. Although the Chinese government continues to introduce loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, it has limited room for short-term boost to the real economy. Therefore, the copper market may still be under pressure in the first half of August. When the off-peak season alternates, copper prices may rebound.
Market: Since the second quarter, the downstream operating rate has gradually increased, and through the arrival of the peak season of copper pipes and other industries, the overall market turnover has improved, but year by year, this year’s peak season is not busy. Affected by the weakening of consumption in the off-season in July and the weakness of China’s economy, spot copper prices have dropped sharply, but merchants’ adjustments have remained stable and no selling has been seen. After the copper price hit a new low, suppliers are reluctant to sell. When copper supply has shrunk, consumption has shrunk, and the overall economy is severely severe, copper prices are unable to rebound, and the subsequent continued decline may break through.
Inventory: LME and Shanghai copper inventories continued to show a slight growth trend this month. The latest statistical data shows that LME copper stocks reported 345,475 tons, which is a bit higher than before; while in the past week, Shanghai copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly to 103,117 tons. Inventory has been in a downward channel for several months, but it increased slightly in July. The growth in July may be related to the recent cross-market arbitrage. Due to the continued profitability of imports, the positive arbitrage of buying LME copper and selling Shanghai copper has the opportunity. This may attract some traders to ship the goods to the warehouse, but the overall amount of change is not large. . At present, the overall supply pressure of copper is not great, and the difficulty of copper price upwards still comes from the shrinkage of the demand side.
Outlook forecast: July economic indicators have been significantly eased compared to the previous month, but the market focus has remained on the economic side. The recent US data has been weak and unfavorable, but the dollar is still strong, putting pressure on basic metals such as copper, plus China Copper consumption has always been in a weak position, which has greatly reduced global copper consumption. Therefore, copper prices have been unable to rebound and have fallen frequently. In the short term, there is still room for rebound in copper prices, but in the long run, US interest rate hikes have reached the long-term strength of the US dollar index, coupled with the copper market demand has not yet recovered significantly, copper prices will weaken again later.