This summer, U.S. electricity demand fell to its lowest level since 2009

Summer electricity demand in the US is expected to be the lowest since 2009, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The summer demand level from June to August is expected to be 998 billion kilowatt-hours, down 5% from last summer’s demand, the report said. The lower power demand is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic and its effects.
Compared with demand in 2019, the EIA said it expected residential electricity use to increase by 3 per cent, while commercial electricity use would fall by 12 per cent and industrial use by 9 per cent.
The EIA says coal production is likely to be lower than last summer. Coal is forecast to generate 178 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, down from 272 billion kilowatt-hours last year.
It said it expected coal to account for just 17 per cent of electricity generation this summer, down from 24 per cent last summer.
Gas is expected to grow from 460 billion KWH last summer to 467 billion KWH this summer, with low gas prices making it attractive. Natural gas is expected to account for 44% of electricity generation this summer, up from 41% last year.
The EIA says the share of wind power will reach 7% this summer and utility-scale solar will grow to 3%.

China’s optical fiber and cable market is recovering

With the novel Coronavirus epidemic under rapid control in China and the policy requirement to speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G and big data center, the three domestic operators have also substantially increased the capital expenditure related to 5G. All these have provided further room for the growth of demand for optical fiber and cable.

Economic recovery CRU raised China’s optical fiber and cable market demand forecast

Michael Finch, director of CRU cables, said that given the latest statistics, worldwide demand for cable is expected to contract by 12-13 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, falling below 100 million core kilometres, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015.

Looking at the Chinese market, Michael Finch points out that demand for fiber optic cable in China has collapsed in Q1, down 18.6% year on year. Meanwhile, In Q1 of 2020, China will account for only 44 percent of the global demand for optical cable, compared with 53 percent in the same period of 2018.

Michael Finch said, “While fTTX-related demand continues to weaken, increased capital spending and a greater focus on 5G will support growth in China’s fiber demand. So we think the market will be brighter for the rest of 2020.”

It is clear that the signs of China’s economic recovery are becoming more and more obvious, and all eyes are now on the bidding of China’s three major operators. Against this backdrop, CRU raised its forecast for the Chinese market in 2020, with a projected demand decline of 5.7%. Michael Finch noted that CRU had forecast a 9% decline in February.

According to Michael Finch, China’s naked fiber market will be dominated by destocking in 2020, and the country’s naked fiber production is expected to fall 14 percent for the full year, while fiber optic cable production will fall 5 percent. Meanwhile, Michael Finch notes that despite the difficulties, many Chinese manufacturers will seek opportunities to expand exports this year.

In asia-pacific, excluding China, overall demand will remain weak in 2020, especially in India. In addition, in The North American market, higher demand growth was supported by regional protection and increased capital spending by U.S. carriers such as Verizon. However, in the European market, due to the impact of Q1 and Q2 epidemic, the demand showed a significant decline. “The delay in 5G deployment across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region has also affected the demand for fiber optic cables in the region to some extent.” Michael Finch says.

According to Michael Finch, operators are experiencing certain performance and financial pressures as a result of the outbreak, which will affect their investment and deployment plans. According to the latest estimates, global demand for optical fiber and cable is expected to drop by 3.6% in 2020, compared with a 1.9% decline in the absence of the epidemic. However, CRU also raised its market forecast for 2021 to 10.5% from 9.3%.

Cable raw material copper, trend analysis in July

Analysis of the main products of cable raw materials (copper): According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the domestic spot copper price continued to fall sharply in July, and the overall copper price fell during the month. The average spot copper price in the beginning of the month was 42585. RMB/ton, the average spot copper price at the end of the month was 39,030 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 3555 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 8.35%.

Macroscopically, abroad, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting announced recently confirmed the recovery of the US economy. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in September may intensify. This topic may still be the focus of the market in August. However, the US GDP in the second quarter fell short of expectations. It was not easy to realize the interest rate hike in September. What is more certain is that the strength of the US dollar will not change, which may trigger a new round of upsurge of funds leaving the commodity market, which will also put pressure on copper prices. On the domestic front, the current Chinese economy is still operating at a low level. Although the Chinese government continues to introduce loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, it has limited room for short-term boost to the real economy. Therefore, the copper market may still be under pressure in the first half of August. When the off-peak season alternates, copper prices may rebound.

Market: Since the second quarter, the downstream operating rate has gradually increased, and through the arrival of the peak season of copper pipes and other industries, the overall market turnover has improved, but year by year, this year’s peak season is not busy. Affected by the weakening of consumption in the off-season in July and the weakness of China’s economy, spot copper prices have dropped sharply, but merchants’ adjustments have remained stable and no selling has been seen. After the copper price hit a new low, suppliers are reluctant to sell. When copper supply has shrunk, consumption has shrunk, and the overall economy is severely severe, copper prices are unable to rebound, and the subsequent continued decline may break through.

Inventory: LME and Shanghai copper inventories continued to show a slight growth trend this month. The latest statistical data shows that LME copper stocks reported 345,475 tons, which is a bit higher than before; while in the past week, Shanghai copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly to 103,117 tons. Inventory has been in a downward channel for several months, but it increased slightly in July. The growth in July may be related to the recent cross-market arbitrage. Due to the continued profitability of imports, the positive arbitrage of buying LME copper and selling Shanghai copper has the opportunity. This may attract some traders to ship the goods to the warehouse, but the overall amount of change is not large. . At present, the overall supply pressure of copper is not great, and the difficulty of copper price upwards still comes from the shrinkage of the demand side.cable cu

Outlook forecast: July economic indicators have been significantly eased compared to the previous month, but the market focus has remained on the economic side. The recent US data has been weak and unfavorable, but the dollar is still strong, putting pressure on basic metals such as copper, plus China Copper consumption has always been in a weak position, which has greatly reduced global copper consumption. Therefore, copper prices have been unable to rebound and have fallen frequently. In the short term, there is still room for rebound in copper prices, but in the long run, US interest rate hikes have reached the long-term strength of the US dollar index, coupled with the copper market demand has not yet recovered significantly, copper prices will weaken again later.

One of the largest submarine optical cable projects in the world

China Mobile International Corp, Facebook, MTN GlobalConnect, Orange, STC, Egypt Telecom, Vodafone and WIOCC have announced a partnership to build 2Africa, the most comprehensive undersea fiber optic cable serving the African continent and the Middle East, and will also connect through East Africa and other undersea cables to expand connectivity with Asia.Wires and cables

The developer has awarded Alcatel Subsea Network the contract to build the cable to greatly enhance connectivity throughout Africa and the Middle East.

2Africa is 37,000 km long and will connect Europe (east via Egypt), the Middle East (via Saudi Arabia) and 21 landing sites in 16 African countries, according to the report. 2Africa will provide much-needed Internet capacity and reliability across much of Africa, complement the rapidly growing capacity demand in the Middle East, and support further growth in 5G and fixed broadband access.

In countries where the 2Africa cable will land, service providers will have access to operator neutral data center or open access cable landing station capacity on a fair and impartial basis. This will support the development of a healthy Internet ecosystem by greatly enhancing the accessibility of businesses and consumers.Wires and cables

2Africa Cable will implement a new technology, ASN SDM1, which will enable the deployment of up to 16 pairs of optical fibres instead of the eight pairs supported by earlier technologies, resulting in greater and more cost-effective capacity. The cable will adopt optical switching technology to achieve flexible bandwidth management. The cable burial depth is also 50% higher than in older systems, and cabling will avoid known locations of seabed interference, all of which helps ensure the highest level of availability.

The system is scheduled to enter service in April 2023 and will deliver more than the total capacity of all submarine cables serving Africa today, with key components designed to have a capacity of up to 180Tbps. Once completed, it will be one of the largest undersea cable projects in the world.Wires and cables

Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic

A sudden outbreak in the beginning of the year disrupted the development and construction rhythm of downstream photovoltaic power cable stations, and a large number of projects may be difficult to be connected to the grid as scheduled.Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic.

According to the policy, the bidding photovoltaic project in 2019 should be completed and connected to the grid by the end of the year. If it is not connected to the grid, the price subsidy will be reduced by 0.01 yuan/kWh for each quarter of the overdue; if the grid is not completed and connected to the grid within two quarters of the overdue , Disqualification of project subsidies.

 

According to industry estimates, the scale of unsuccessful carry-over bidding projects in 2019 is about 12GW. From January to March, the country’s new photovoltaic installations will be 3.95GW, most of which are carried-over projects in 2019. Based on this estimate, there are still 8GW The project is faced with “630” pre-installation.Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic.

Nan Cunhui, member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and chairman of Chint Group, said in the “Proposal to Extend the Term of Grid-connected Photovoltaic Power Stations in 2019” that the construction of domestic photovoltaic power plants in the first quarter was basically at a standstill, and construction started in late March The rate is only about 35%, about 65% in mid-April, and a large number of projects are difficult to connect to the grid as scheduled. However, for other regions outside Hubei affected by the epidemic, no policy has been issued for the extension of the bidding project grid connection, which will have a greater impact on the domestic photovoltaic market and enterprise operations.Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic.

Nan Cunhui said that without the support of subsidies, about 6GW of projects across the country are expected to choose to abandon construction, and about 24 billion yuan of investment will be lost. A large number of photovoltaic companies are facing the risk of inventory backlogs and profit declines and are even forced to stop production.Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic.

Not only the “630” project, at the industry public meeting, according to Hu Yidong, member of the Party Committee and deputy general manager of the Yellow River Upper Hydropower Development Responsible Company (hereinafter referred to as the Yellow River Hydropower) of the State Power Investment Corporation, affected by the epidemic, the “930” developed by the Yellow River Company “The project is also facing pressure on grid connection. In the 5GW new energy configuration project of the Qinghai Hainan UHV transmission base, the Yellow River Hydropower won the 4.1GW wind and solar project, of which the photovoltaic project scale was 2.4GW (including the size of the consortium). According to the construction progress requirements, the project should be completed and connected to the grid by September 30, 2020. If the full capacity is not completed and scheduled to be connected to the grid, the grid-connected electricity price will be reduced by 0.01 yuan/kWh every month beyond the deadline. By December 31, 2020 If the full capacity cannot be built and connected to the network, the project subsidy qualification will be cancelled.

Hu Yidong said that due to the sudden outbreak, the 4.1GW wind and light project “930” grid connection is under great pressure. From the current judgment, the entire project’s full-capacity grid connection may be delayed until the end of November. The photovoltaic project may reach 80% by September 30. ~90% capacity is put into production.Photovoltaic cable under the epidemic.